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Now this...........

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Re: Now this...........

By Jodie - Nov 4, 2007, 3:11 PM
Post #176 of 192 [In reply to]

And that's why there are research methods classes.

In a nutshell, you have to look at who the "customer" is. If the customer is a group or a person that has a vested interest in the results, you have to take that with a grain salt, as you say. This was an independent poll. Nobody with an interest in it coming out one way or another was paying for it, so I think that gives you a slightly more valid answer (though there's MUCH more to reliability and validity). I wouldn't look at this and say, "oh, that's it, most people America wants all teens on birth control," but I would interpret that it's probably a good snapshot of what this particular demographic group thinks when asked these questions. This particular company has other polls up there that necessarily reflect "liberal" thinking, so I'd say that's a pretty good indicator that they're using sound practices.

If you know candidates that drop out of races simply because of polls that someone else did, it's probably a good thing they dropped out, if they can't use critical thinking skills...

Other than that, the truth is that we have no way of knowing that anyone isn't lying about anything and everything. There are some fairly well established guidelines in how to account for untruthful answers among polls. For any poll to be valid/reliable, the idea is that if they repeated this poll with other people using the same demographic criteria, they would get a substantially similar result. They've gone by this criteria. No, you shouldn't jut blindly trust anyone, but there's also no reason not to consider it to be valid information among other information in your own decision-making process.

Would you be questioning these results so much if they went along with your thinking? Judging historically from your responses elsewhere on this board, I think you'd simply be thinking that they confirm that your opinion is "right", rather than saying "well, people can make polls say whatever they want." People absolutely can make "research" bend in their favor when they're being unethical about it. Question the source. Go to the source- look at the info for yourself. Research the company doing the research. Don't just blanketly dismiss things you don't agree with and accept the things you do when it comes to this stuff. That's what critical thinking is all about.

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Re: Now this...........

By Jodie - Nov 4, 2007, 3:21 PM
Post #177 of 192 [In reply to]

Just to add- while the company that did this research makes much more available to the public than the company who did the research in the other thread, it's still the same basic premise. I don't think that anyone was saying those results were wrong, they were pointing out that with the sample size (which is about the same as this study), the fact that the answers were almost split down the middle 50/50 and a 3ish% margin of error, you can't really say that the poll really concluded anything. Although this poll was the same size and had about the same margin of error, the results weren't even close- something like 65-35. That makes a huge difference. In the first poll, you're just as likely for the results to be reversed if you repeated it- there's virtually no chance if you did it here, under the same conditions.

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Re: Now this...........

By Fred Sennott - Nov 4, 2007, 3:56 PM
Post #178 of 192 [In reply to]

There is no such thing asd an independent poll,someone pays for each and every one of them.
The people who dropped out I was talking about were people who dropped out because of poll results they paid for themselves.
Yes I would question results that gave answers that I liked,especially if they went against what I was hearing in my daily contacts.
Trust in God and sin not.Don't blame me I'm like Sparky I voted for Sarah to.

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Re: Now this...........

By Fred Sennott - Nov 4, 2007, 4:01 PM
Post #179 of 192 [In reply to]

You still have no idea who they questioned,where they lived ,what their philosophy is,what income group they come from,how much they earned.You only have unverified data that may or may not be factual,provided by an unregulated business.So you have to take its results with a grain of salt,or even with some doubts,if it goes against what you have learned on your own.
Trust in God and sin not.Don't blame me I'm like Sparky I voted for Sarah to.

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Re: Now this...........

By triquetra - Nov 4, 2007, 5:31 PM
Post #180 of 192 [In reply to]

Thank you, Fred, for reiterating what some of us have been saying all along: polls and statistics must be thoroughly researched before any real credence is given to them, and there are many cases in which the information necessary to do a full analysis isn't available to the general public.
*~*~*~*
Luceo non uro

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Re: Now this...........

By Fred Sennott - Nov 4, 2007, 7:10 PM
Post #181 of 192 [In reply to]

So follow my advice and take them all with a grain of salt until you find verification of their findings.Remember right up until midnight on election day 2004 the pollsters were saying Jawn Forbes Kerry was ahead,despite the fact the actual returns said the opposite.
Trust in God and sin not.Don't blame me I'm like Sparky I voted for Sarah to.

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Re: Now this...........

By Harry Burton - Nov 4, 2007, 9:05 PM
Post #182 of 192 [In reply to]


In Reply To
Thank you, Fred, for reiterating what some of us have been saying all along: polls and statistics must be thoroughly researched before any real credence is given to them, and there are many cases in which the information necessary to do a full analysis isn't available to the general public.


It's all sonia2's fault she posted the poll... I withdraw my nomination.Laugh

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Re: Now this...........

By Harry Burton - Nov 4, 2007, 9:13 PM
Post #183 of 192 [In reply to]


In Reply To
So follow my advice and take them all with a grain of salt until you find verification of their findings.Remember right up until midnight on election day 2004 the pollsters were saying Jawn Forbes Kerry was ahead,despite the fact the actual returns said the opposite.


Public opinion polls weren't accurate back in 1948 (Harry S. Truman vs. Thomas E. Dewey) and they haven't improved.

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Re: Now this...........

By Fred Sennott - Nov 4, 2007, 9:22 PM
Post #184 of 192 [In reply to]

Thats wehat I'bve been arguing on another thread all along.On election day in 2004 at midnight the pollsters were saying Jawn forbes Kerry was ahead by a vcomfortable margin ,yet the actual returns said the oppposite.Remember all thiose Dumbocrats standing out in the cold rain in Copley Sq until the wee hours waiting for his acceptance speach.Then he sent his flunky thge ambulance chaser to say he was going to wait until Ohio came in before he would speak.Well Ohio came and as the intelligent folks knew it would it went to Bush.and the war hero let them stasnd out there in thne cold knowing he blew it.
Trust in God and sin not.Don't blame me I'm like Sparky I voted for Sarah to.

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Re: Now this...........

By Harry Burton - Nov 4, 2007, 9:30 PM
Post #185 of 192 [In reply to]

Poor Jawn forbes Kerry we don't hear much about the little feller these days. When the Dummycrates saw that he couldn't win an election they dumped him like a hot potato.Frown

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Re: Now this...........

By Fred Sennott - Nov 4, 2007, 9:44 PM
Post #186 of 192 [In reply to]

Have you noticed not a single Dumbocraic candidate has asked for his support.They avoid him like he was a leper.
Trust in God and sin not.Don't blame me I'm like Sparky I voted for Sarah to.

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Re: Now this...........

By eeka - Nov 5, 2007, 9:09 AM
Post #187 of 192 [In reply to]


In Reply To
You still have no idea who they questioned,where they lived ,what their philosophy is,what income group they come from,how much they earned.


That information is all available to the public.

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Re: Now this...........

By genie - Nov 5, 2007, 5:57 PM
Post #188 of 192 [In reply to]

   ...But to get back to the original subject, and the poll, maybe you all should reread, or read, the whole thing!

* First,and S2 quotes this, most of the respondents think that providing BC to teens will lower the pregnancy rate. Well,duh!Providing BC to interested persons will do that,don't you think? That's a dumb opener, imho..

*The majority who thought giving out BC was a good idea thought it should go to kids whose parents had consented. Some of the forum posters said the same, or at the least, that the parents had given prior approval when they signed onto the health plan.

* The poll did not specify which methods of BC it was asking about[thereby leaving responders to assume what they will]...I'm guessing the responses to 'giving condoms' and 'giving Rx pills' might have resulted in very different results.

* Which shows what we've known all along: the framing (wording) of the questions can change a response & skew the results, and it takes a smart cooky to write a poll that will truly get accurate, objective results.

[And a few forced choices might clarify things too.. imHo]

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Re: Now this...........

By Fred Sennott - Nov 5, 2007, 8:28 PM
Post #189 of 192 [In reply to]

Only what they want you to know is available.You forget this is a completely unregulated industry and they make up their own rules as they go.
Trust in God and sin not.Don't blame me I'm like Sparky I voted for Sarah to.

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Re: Now this...........

By eeka - Nov 5, 2007, 10:19 PM
Post #190 of 192 [In reply to]


In Reply To
Only what they want you to know is available.You forget this is a completely unregulated industry and they make up their own rules as they go.


Which industry are you referring to?

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Re: Now this...........

By Ron Newman - Nov 6, 2007, 12:57 PM
Post #191 of 192 [In reply to]


In Reply To
.* First,and S2 quotes this, most of the respondents think that providing BC to teens will lower the pregnancy rate.
Even after they lost to Florida State last week?

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Re: Now this...........

By eeka - Nov 6, 2007, 1:03 PM
Post #192 of 192 [In reply to]


In Reply To


In Reply To
.* First,and S2 quotes this, most of the respondents think that providing BC to teens will lower the pregnancy rate.
Even after they lost to Florida State last week?


PFFT

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